Is a four-day workweek inevitable?
The answer, probably, is maybe. How’s that for a hedge? But one thing is sure: If it happens, it won’t be in the way Bernie Sanders would like.
Sanders, the senator from Vermont, is sponsoring legislation that would mandate a four-day, 32-hour workweek by making that the new threshold for overtime pay.
Did you hear that? He’s not talking about four 10-hour days, as some professions offer. Eight hours would be cut from everyone’s work schedule.
And, using the kind of magic only liberal lawmakers can apply, he would do all this and still require employers not to cut anybody’s pay.
But here’s a spoiler alert: Businesses can’t do this and stay profitable unless workers can remain just as productive in four days as they were in five. This may, in fact, be the case. But if so, the four-day workweek will evolve best from the bottom up, not because of some top-down edict from Washington. That process may already be underway.
Like the stock market, American worker productivity has climbed steadily over time. However, it has slowed recently.
Artificial intelligence has the potential to change all of that. Writing for the Brookings Institution earlier this month, Martin Neil Baily and Aidan Kane cited evidence that generative AI “can improve the productivity of less-skilled employees within an occupation or organization.” It is also aiding scientists and doctors.
“If AI can contribute to faster scientific advancement, this will add to productivity growth on top of the direct use of AI in businesses,” they wrote.
If that sounds a little too tame or dry, you might prefer the giddiness of Bill Gates, who last fall said he envisions not a four-day, but a three-day workweek in a world where “machines can make all the food and the stuff, and we don’t have to work as hard.”
Good news — unless, of course, you like making food and stuff, or if doing so is your job.
If you take this idea to Google, you’ll get a lot of great news about the wonders of a four-day workweek, from its effects on the environment (less commuting!) to its positive impact on workers’ mental health (less burnout!).
But, as the Albuquerque Journal noted earlier this year, there is precious little reliable research about what happens when the workweek is reduced. And what little has been done is inconclusive.
The paper paraphrased Anderson School of Management economics professor Subramanian Iyer as being critical of “anecdotal case studies conducted for a short span of time, one company here, one company there, and the evidence is mostly survey-based — surveys where people give their opinions.”
Meanwhile, in June of 2022, a Gallup poll found that people who work four-day weeks had a higher rate of burnout than those who worked five. Shorter weeks led to less “disengagement” from work but not much higher well-being.
That doesn’t mean you don’t want to give it a try, does it? A survey last month by resumebuilder.com found 80% of full-time workers said they would like a four-day week. Almost all of them said they could get their work done in 32 hours (of course they did). And, surprisingly, 21% said they would take a pay cut to make it happen.
I’m guessing most of you would not take the pay cut, but you also would be eager to promise to be just as productive if every weekend were three days long. But a lot of businesses would be faced with the need to hire more people to fill shifts, making the labor market even tighter. Wall Street isn’t likely to reduce trading to four days.
But make no mistake, if this labor-market revolution happens, it will be because of market forces, not Sanders or anyone else in Congress. With unemployment at 3.9%, companies are being forced to attract workers with perks. CNN reported last month that 30% of large U.S. companies are exploring the idea of offering four or four-and-a-half day weeks to retain workers.
The news organization quoted Paul Knopp, chair and CEO of KPMG US, who said, “We are all working to figure out what is optimal, and we will continue to experiment and pivot.”
That’s how business works. But take my advice and don’t book that three-day weekend resort vacation quite yet.
