China’s Population Decline Continues (2024)

China’s populationfellby two million in 2023, marking the second straight year of decline. Statistics suggest that China’s total fertility rate, which has steadily declined from 1.5 births per woman in the late 1990s to 1.15 in 2021, is now approaching 1.0—far below the replacement level of 2.1 that would maintain current population levels. Naturally, China’s trajectory is far from unique. It is following the broad pattern seen throughout East Asia, with birth rates declining to the lowest in the world, and national populations poised to age rapidly in the coming decades. Such trends point to major economic, social, and political challenges ahead for both China and the region—including increasingly unsustainable pension systems, surging eldercare needs, and rapidly aging workforces.

Perhaps unappreciated is the extent to which current official population projections actually underestimate the extent of these challenges, precisely because they bake in shaky statistical assumptions that fertility rates will “rebound” in coming decades. China’s own long-term plans include similar assumptions. The 2016-2030 population developmentplanissued by the State Council assumes that China’s fertility rates will rise from 1.5-1.6 (in 2015) to around 1.8 by 2020 and 2030. Wenzhou’s corresponding municipalplanissued in 2022 assume that the total fertility rate will rise back to around 1.35 by 2035.

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Absolutely nothing like these trends have been observed anywhere in East Asia over the past decades. Indeed, fertility rates are going in exactly the opposite direction. Fertility rates in Taiwan and South Korea, which hovered in the 1.1-2 zone in the early years of the 21stcentury, have steadily declined over the past two decades—reaching 0.87 in Taiwan (for 2022) and 0.72 for South Korea (in 2023). Even Japan, which had registered total fertility rates between 1.3 and 1.4 since the late 1990s, is now in the seventh year of a steady decline, reaching 1.26 in 2022.

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China and East Asia’s descent to ultra-low fertility suggests far more rapid societal aging than current projections indicate. But by pinning their hopes on unfounded assumptions about a future rebound in national fertility rates, policymakers may be weakening their ability to appreciate the extent of the coming challenges posed by rapid demographic change, and undermining their ability to respond to the practical governance challenges that will result.

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Aging, Youth Bulges, and Population

China’s Population Decline Continues (2024)

FAQs

What is China doing about population decline? ›

The government lifted the policy in 2015 to try to stem the population fall, and has brought in a series of other incentives too, such as subsidies and payments to encourage people to start families. In 2021, it further relaxed the limit to allow couples to have up to three children.

Is the US population declining? ›

In 2024, the United States continues to face significant demographic challenges. Propelled by falling birth rates, the U.S. population is rapidly aging and steadily declining.

What is China's current population in 2024? ›

Population of China in 2024

The population of China stood at 1.43 billion in January 2024. Data shows that China's population decreased by 356 thousand (-0.02 percent) between early 2023 and the start of 2024. 49.0 percent of China's population is female, while 51.0 percent of the population is male.

Why is China's overpopulation a problem? ›

Having a large population means more people to feed. This creates pressure on the on the stock of food and in turn reduces China's economic development. Although China has large areas and fertile land for farming crops, there are still high levels of undernourishment in the population, especially in rural areas.

What country has the lowest birth rate? ›

For the sixth consecutive year, South Korea has recorded the world's lowest fertility rate. In the latest figures released by the government on Feb. 28, that number sunk to a new low—from 0.84 children per couple in 2022 to 0.81 in 2023. By 2024, the rate is projected to fall even further to 0.68.

Why is population decline bad? ›

More generally, the main reason governments, mainstream economists, and businesspeople fret about low birth rates and population decline is because these lead to population aging and fewer consumers and taxpayers, respectively.

What is the fastest shrinking city in America? ›

Jackson the fastest shrinking city in America. See how far it has fallen. In the 2021 census, Jackson's population dropped below 150,000 for the first time since before 1970. That shrinking continued with the release of the data from the 2022 census estimates, which revealed a 2.5 % drop for the state's capital city.

What is the fastest growing state in America? ›

Fastest Growing States in the US

The ten fastest growing states are Utah, Idaho, Texas, North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado, Washington, Florida, Arizona, and South Carolina. Utah is the fastest growing state with a population growth rate of 15%.

What population is declining the fastest? ›

In the Cook Islands in 2023, the population decreased by about 2.31 percent compared to the previous year, making it the country with the highest population decline rate in 2023.

How many US citizens live in China? ›

Americans in China (simplified Chinese: 在华美国人; traditional Chinese: 在華美國人; pinyin: zài huá měiguó rén) are expatriates and immigrants from the United States as well as their locally born descendants. Estimates range from 72,000 (excluding Hong Kong and Macau) to 110,000.

What is the most crowded country in the world? ›

Population per Square Kilometer: 24,266

Monaco secured the first place on our list of the most densely populated countries in the world in 2024. Over the period from 1960 to 2024, the population of Monaco increased from 22,461 to over 36,000 individuals.

What is the male to female ratio in China? ›

In 2021, the male-to-female ratio of China is recorded at 104.61 to 100. Some early research into the sex ratio imbalance pointed to sex-selective abortion practices in the wake of China's one-child policy.

Is the United States overpopulated? ›

Although the U.S. is the third largest country in the world, it has a fairly low population density and in 2017, the U.S. birthrate was the lowest in thirty years, which is well below replacement level. Those upsides, however, are disappearing, particularly in larger metropolitan areas that are becoming overcrowded.

Can China reverse its population decline? ›

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China. China's total natural population[1] dropped by more than 2 million in 2023, according to the latest Chinese statistics.

Is Japan under or overpopulated? ›

According to a demographic study conducted by Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japanese population (including foreign residents) has declined from 128 million people in 2010 to 124.3 million people in 2023, with a decrease of almost 511,000 people in one year.

What has China done to increase population? ›

The primary policy response so far by Chinese officialdom to the demographic challenge has been an attempt to boost fertility rates. China ended its nearly 40 years of strict birth control in 2016, and then officially adopted a three-child policy in 2021.

Why is China's fertility rate so low? ›

Most of China's fertility decline happened in the 1970s, as a result of such forces as urbanisation and women's education (Mao-era calls for large families also stopped). Similar forces saw birth rates plunge across East Asia.

What are the major reasons for the low population growth in China? ›

In China, the low population growth is caused by the "one child policy". Around thirty years ago, a notion on population was established by administration of China. At that time, the population which was so high, can affect the improvement of economic development and life condition, can cause lack of food and water.

How many people can China support? ›

Based on the hypothesis that China can produce 830 million tons of grain at maximum, the researchers concluded that the region is able to support 1.66 billion people (assuming 500-550 kg/person/year).

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