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Check the liquidity
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Compare the performance
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Look for the edge
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Here’s what else to consider
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Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are popular investment vehicles that offer exposure to a basket of assets, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies. However, not all ETFs are created equal, and some may have hidden risks, fees, or performance issues that can trap unsuspecting investors. Technical analysis, the study of price patterns and trends, can help you avoid these ETF traps and select the best ones for your portfolio. Here are some tips on how to use technical analysis to evaluate ETFs.
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- Bao Tran, MBA, MSc, CFA/CMT L3, CFTe®, CPWA®, CRE®
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1 Check the liquidity
Liquidity refers to how easily and quickly you can buy or sell an ETF without affecting its price. A liquid ETF has high trading volume, narrow bid-ask spreads, and low tracking error. These factors indicate that the ETF is well-managed, has strong demand, and closely follows its underlying index. A low-liquidity ETF, on the other hand, may have wide price swings, high transaction costs, and significant deviations from its benchmark. To check the liquidity of an ETF, you can use technical indicators such as volume, moving averages, and relative strength index (RSI).
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- Bao Tran, MBA, MSc, CFA/CMT L3, CFTe®, CPWA®, CRE®
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Agreed. RSI is useful to identify the trend intensitivity of etf. For the liquidity of ETF, Money Flow Index (mfi) or Force Index (FI) is more useful
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2 Compare the performance
Performance is another key aspect of evaluating an ETF. You want to choose an ETF that has consistent and positive returns over time, relative to its peers and its benchmark. You also want to avoid an ETF that has high volatility, which means that its price fluctuates a lot and exposes you to more risk. To compare the performance of an ETF, you can use technical tools such as charts, trend lines, and performance ratios. For example, you can plot the price of an ETF against its index and see how closely they match. You can also calculate the Sharpe ratio, which measures the risk-adjusted return of an ETF.
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To compare performance, compare ETF's based on asset class first. If you look to compare Equity ETF compare it with Equity ETF for clear analysis. If you are comparing sectoral ETF it is better to compare using sharpe ratio, Beta and Alpha over main Index. This way we can understand how much have sectoral index have performed compared to whole market.
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3 Look for the edge
The edge is the advantage that an ETF has over its competitors or the market. It can be based on factors such as sector exposure, dividend yield, cost efficiency, or innovation. An ETF with an edge can offer you higher returns, lower risk, or more diversification. To look for the edge of an ETF, you can use technical analysis to identify its strengths and weaknesses, as well as its opportunities and threats. For instance, you can use sector analysis to see which industries are outperforming or underperforming the market. You can also use candlestick patterns to spot potential reversals or breakouts in an ETF.
Technical analysis can help you avoid ETF traps and find the best ones for your investment goals. By using technical indicators, tools, and strategies, you can assess the liquidity, performance, and edge of an ETF and make informed decisions. However, technical analysis is not a guarantee of success, and you should also consider other factors such as your risk tolerance, time horizon, and market conditions. Do you use technical analysis to evaluate ETFs? What are some of your favorite techniques or tips? Share your thoughts with us.
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When you are looking to invest in sector using technical indicators, it is important to understand RSI, MACD and ROC indicators. I prefer to look sectoral charts in weekly timeframe chart and there is breakout above 50 Day EMA or 100 Day EMA, along with rising RSI nearing zones of 50-60 with ROC rising near or at positive zone. If this conditions are met, I would take bullish view on that particular sector.
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4 Here’s what else to consider
This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?
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