NFL straight-up picks, Week 10: The worst primetime games in NFL history (2024)

SEVENTEEN POINTS! I believe this is the most lopsided spread since 2020, when the Jets were a 20-point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8 (they lost, 35-6). Folks across the country looked at the Cowboys as two-touchdown favorites and said “nah, I’m not concerned about Dallas until this becomes a three-possession spread.”

Look, this section has fallen apart lately with three straight losses. If Tommy DeVito somehow makes it four in a row, I will rename it the “DeVito thinks I’m an idiot game I’m horrifically overconfident about.”

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 6-3 (.667)

I dunno, maybe it’s cognitive dissonance. Everything I see from the Patriots suggest this team is dog rockets. But I still hesitate when it comes to picking against them versus a mediocre quarterback.

Granted, this team let Sam Howell throw for 300-plus yards against it, but I don’t love the idea of an inconsistent Gardner Minshew facing a defense that will toss a menagerie of different sets and blitzes at him in order to discombobulate him. On the other hand, I do enjoy the idea of the mustachioed Saints Row character come to life balling out and turning himself into a cult figure in Germany.

That’s a possibility, but the much more rational outcome is that Minshew plays fine and a defense that’s forced at least one turnover every game this season finds a way to devastate Mac Jones right when it seems he might be turning a corner. That seems like the only given between two untrustable teams. It has forced me to lean against Bill Belichick in Week 10 and toward the impending high value draft pick he’ll no doubt use to take a deeply unsexy offensive lineman.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 8-1 (.889)

I don’t love the idea of picking Aidan O’Connell against this Jets defense. While the Raiders have an above average offensive line and he’s been good about getting the ball out quickly, there are going to be moments where New York’s sheer talent overwhelms him and forces him into some very rookie mistakes.

But, my god man, I cannot in good conscience trust this Jets team. Without the benefit of multiple turovers and short fields, New York’s high score in regulation in a single game is a whopping 10 points. New York is coming off a demoralizing loss and Las Vegas just had the exact opposite while crushing a different inept northern New Jersey offense (a 30-6 win over the Giants).

The Jets have the best unit in this game thanks to the defense that ranks sixth in total DVOA (the Raiders clock in at 20th, while neither offense cracks the top 28). That would typically be enough to get my support, and I imagine there will be a fair amount of sharp money coming in on the Jets as kickoff approaches at this number. Still, though. Zach Wilson.

Sigh. Give me the Raiders, for now.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 7-2 (.778)