Is China in a bad debt?
How bad is it? China's debt is more than 250 percent of GDP, higher than the United States. It remains lower than Japan, the world's most indebted leading economy, but some experts say the concern is that China's debt has surged at the sort of pace that usually leads to a financial bust and economic slump.
Corporate debt adds another 123 per cent of GDP worth of liabilities, a large chunk of which is owed by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [2]. In addition, household debt - mostly mortgages - is 61 per cent of GDP. Altogether, China's gross national debt is over 300 percent of GDP.
China's overall debts have widened to the equivalent of more than 300% of gross domestic product, far in excess of the 253% of GDP the U.S. owes. A chunk of China's debt is owed by its local governments.
Actual growth seems below the official figures; there is substantial deflation; the housing market has yet to stabilize; and the domestic stock markets have fallen significantly. Domestic confidence is flagging, and foreign investment in 2023 was at a three-decade low.
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
Analysts estimate that two-thirds of corporate debt is in the hands of China's sprawling state-owned enterprises, many of which are unprofitable and inefficient.
Since China began to open up and reform its economy in 1978, GDP growth has averaged over 9 percent a year, and almost 800 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty. There have also been significant improvements in access to health, education, and other services over the same period.
China's economy has yoyoed in the past few years, with growth ranging from 2.2% in 2020 to 8.4% in 2021 and 3% last year. Stringent limits on travel and other activities during the pandemic hit manufacturing and transport.
| Statistics | |
|---|---|
| GDP | $18.560 trillion (nominal; 2024 est.) $35.032 trillion (PPP; 2024 est.) |
| GDP rank | 2nd (nominal; 2023) 1st (PPP; 2023) |
| GDP growth | 5.2% (2023) 4.6% (2024f) |
| GDP per capita | $13,155 (nominal; 2024) $24,839 (PPP; 2024) |
Is China an economic threat to the United States?
The counterintelligence and economic espionage efforts emanating from the government of China and the Chinese Communist Party are a grave threat to the economic well-being and democratic values of the United States. Confronting this threat is the FBI's top counterintelligence priority.
The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No. 2. Even more striking, U.S. GDP was over five times that of the next two largest economies, Japan and Germany.
In a report released on Friday, the global financial policy body – also known as the IMF – projected China's economic growth would drop to 4.6% this year, down from its 5.2% growth in 2023, and fall further to 3.4% by 2028.
| Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
|---|---|
| Macao SAR | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
| Kuwait | 3.08% |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
| Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
|---|---|
| Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
| China | $859,400,000,000 |
| United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
| Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
Why History Shows the United States Will Not Grow Out of Its Debt. The United States is approaching record levels of debt. Debt held by the public totaled 97 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of 2022 and is on track to exceed its previous all-time high, which occurred just after World II, by 2029.
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
China focuses on export-led growth to help generate jobs. To keep its export prices low, China must keep the renminbi low compared to the U.S. dollar. U.S. debt to China comes in the form of U.S. Treasuries, largely due to their safety and stability.
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.
What happens if China stops buying U.S. debt?
What would happen if China stopped buying US debt? Very little. China holds only about five percent of the US public debt, and roughly the same amount that Japan holds. The largest creditor of the US government is actually the Social Security Administration—in effect, the government itself.
Is Bank of America Partly Owned by China? No, Bank of America is not partly owned by China. It is an American bank.
Consistent with these observations, we show that the timing of China's overtaking will be determined by the pace of US and Chinese nominal GDP growth and moves in the bilateral exchange rate. For a range of plausible assumptions, we find that overtaking occurs during the 2030s, most likely in the middle of the decade.
In 2022, the IMF judged the Chinese economy in PPP terms to be 23% larger than America. At the same time, using PPP data the World Bank estimated the Chinese economy to be 18.8% larger than America. And even the CIA considered the differential in favour of China at 16%.
US gross domestic product rose 6.3% in nominal terms, compared to China's 4.6% gain in 2023.
