What will happen if the US debt keeps rising?
Rising debt means fewer economic opportunities for Americans. Rising debt reduces business investment and slows economic growth. It also increases expectations of higher rates of inflation and erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
Decreased savings and income
The government's need to borrow will eventually exceed the savings available, and even though more households and businesses are purchasing treasury securities, national savings will reach a low point in comparison to the size of the federal debt.
It ultimately comes down to the U.S. taxpayers. That means in order to pay it off, or at least make a larger dent in the debt, the federal government would have to raise taxes and cut spending.
At high debt levels, governments have less capacity to provide support for ailing banks, and if they do, sovereign borrowing costs may rise further. At the same time, the more banks hold of their countries' sovereign debt, the more exposed their balance sheet is to the sovereign's fiscal fragility.
The U.S. national debt has soared to historic levels relative to the size of the U.S. economy. Many economists say that a rapidly mounting debt load could soon diminish U.S. economic growth, restrict government spending on important programs, and raise the likelihood of financial crises.
Nearly every year, the government spends more than it collects in taxes and other revenue, resulting in a deficit. (The debt ceiling, set by Congress, caps how much the U.S. can borrow to pay for its remaining bills.) The national debt, now at a historic high, is the buildup of its deficits over time.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt. 1 However, it does not own the most U.S. debt of any foreign country.
We estimate that the U.S. debt held by the public cannot exceed about 200 percent of GDP even under today's generally favorable market conditions.
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
Singapore is one of Asia's major financial centers. It is also one of the most prosperous countries on the planet. And all this has been achieved without taking on any meaningful public debt. In fact, very much like Norway, Singapore has more assets than debt.
Who does the US owe money to?
| Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
|---|---|
| Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
| China | $859,400,000,000 |
| United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
| Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
Federal Borrowing
The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.
Around 70% of Japanese government bonds are purchased by the Bank of Japan, and much of the remainder is purchased by Japanese banks and trust funds, which largely insulates the prices and yields of such bonds from the effects of the global bond market and reduces their sensitivity to credit rating changes.
The main reason Peterson and other economists are worried about the national debt is the amount of interest the government has to pay on it. As of November, servicing the national debt ate up 16% of federal spending, about the same as the government spends on defense.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
The $34 trillion is also bigger than our own economy. The United States' gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the sum total of all the goods and services we produce in a year, is about is about $27 trillion.
The $34 trillion gross federal debt includes debt held by the public as well as debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts.
By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off. Congress distributed the surplus to the states (many of which were heavily in debt). The Jackson administration ended with the country almost completely out of debt!
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
Holders of U.S. Debt
Furthermore, China needs to maintain significant reserves of U.S. debt to manage the exchange rate of the renminbi. Were China to suddenly unload its reserve holdings, its currency's exchange rate would rise, making Chinese exports more expensive in foreign markets.
Does Russia hold US debt?
The value of U.S. Treasury securities held by residents of Russia amounted to 33 million U.S. dollars in June 2023, the lowest over the period under consideration. Furthermore, in March 2020, the figure decreased sharply to 3.85 billion U.S. dollars, down from 12.6 billion U.S. dollars one month prior.
Of the $33T of debt, roughly 78% is owned by the public (70% US vs 30% International). The major US public owners include the FED ($6T, but they are no longer buyers), mutual funds, banks, states, pension funds and insurance companies.
Russia National Government Debt reached 281.6 USD bn in Feb 2024, compared with 287.8 USD bn in the previous month. Russia National Government Debt data is updated monthly, available from May 2009 to Feb 2024. The data reached an all-time high of 384.2 USD bn in Jun 2022 and a record low of 86.1 USD bn in May 2009.
Without changes in fiscal policy, we project that the debt-to-GDP ratio will grow from 100 percent in 2024 to 190 percent in 2050. Contrary to conventional thinking, there exists a wide range of policy options that can reduce the growth of debt while growing the economy.
The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No. 2. Even more striking, U.S. GDP was over five times that of the next two largest economies, Japan and Germany.
