China’s Cities Are Buried in Debt, but They Keep Shoveling It On (Published 2023) (2024)

FAQs

Are China's cities buried in debt? ›

An International Monetary Fund report puts the number at $9.5 trillion, equivalent to half the country's economy. But from the enthusiastic way that the cities have embraced investment — China's old playbook for economic growth — it's hard to tell that they're deeply in debt.

BEIJING, March 29 -- China's outstanding external debt stood at 2.45 trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2023, data from the country's forex regulator showed Friday. Outstanding external debt in terms of the Chinese yuan accounted for 47 percent of the total, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).

However, the sheer scale of the country's local government hidden debt -- up to more than 70 trillion yuan ($9.8 trillion), according to some estimates, which is over twice Germany's GDP -- means that the measures at best are far from adequate and will provide only temporary relief to what experts say is a looming ...

The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.

Consequences of Owing Debt to the Chinese

If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.

At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023. *For the U.S. and Canada, gross debt levels were adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees' defined-benefit pension plans.

Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.

Nearly half of all US foreign-owned debt comes from five countries. All values are adjusted to 2023 dollars. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).

If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

Who owes the US money? ›

Among other countries, Japan and China have continued to be the top owners of US debt during the last two decades. Since the dollar is a strong currency that is accepted globally, holding a substantial amount of US debt can be beneficial.

United States. The United States boasts both the world's biggest national debt in terms of dollar amount and its largest economy, which resolves to a debt-to GDP ratio of approximately 128.13%.

China's economy is at a turning point. An old economic model underpinned by heavy investment in infrastructure and real estate is crumbling. Growth is slowing and prices are falling, raising the specter of a Japan-style slide into stagnation. How did the world's second-largest economy get into such a mess?

According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, external debt of the Russian Federation as of March 31, 2024 totaled $304.0 billion, having decreased by $12.8 billion, or by 4.1%, since the end of 2023.

China's real problem is corporate debt. The ratio of nonfinancial corporate debt-to-GDP jumped to 116% from 93% in the three years after the stimulus began, and then continued to increase. Now at about 153%, China's corporate debt-to-GDP ratio is one of the highest in the world.

In 2023, aggregate local government debt had risen to 92 trillion yuan ($12.58 trillion) and the central government of People's Republic of China ordered its banks to roll over debts in a debt-restructuring. China's gross external debt in 2023 was $2.38 trillion.

Under-occupied developments in China are mostly unoccupied property developments in China, and frequently referred to as "ghost cities" or ghost towns.

Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.

U.S. Debt FAQs

The United States currently owes China around $775 billion as of 2024. However, China does not disclose how much debt the U.S. owes them.