How good, really, is Taylor Heinicke? The answer may decide Ron Rivera's fate in Washington (2024)

Yes, we’re asking again: what does Washington really have in Taylor Heinicke?

Is he a legit NFL starting quarterback, a plus-plus backup, something in between?

We revisit this over and over because it’s only the most important position in all of sports. And how the Washington Football Team stocks the position for 2022 will, it’s not hyperbole to posit, be a major factor in whether Ron Rivera ultimately succeeds here or not. Is Heinicke the guy? And if he’s not the guy, how does Washington get the guy?

There’s always a choice. Quarterback alternatives will exist next offseason. Rivera won’t be beholden to anything – NFL rules, an existing contract, “Real Housewives of Potomac” storylines – to keep Heinicke in the starting lineup.

It’s also time to acknowledge that No. 4 might be Washington’s best option.

Part of the equation involves the relative “meh” vibes for the projected group of veterans or draft-eligible candidates. Just as or more significant will be the total number of teams seeking a new signal-caller. This offseason, roughly half the league’s teams might target new quarterbacks.

But unless Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson becomes available or scouts swoon over a particular prodigy, the level of sex appeal for the likely options won’t automatically ring anyone’s bell.

There’s no Black Friday sale needed to make the rack of free-agent quarterbacks next offseason appear picked over. Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor won’t have many suitors swooning. Besides, Heinicke has basically reached their tier.

Heinicke entered Week 12 ranked 17th in the NFL in completions, with 217: ahead of the likes of Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence, but behind Mac Jones, Jared Goff and Bridgewater. Heinicke was 16th in total passing yards (2,390). He was 19th in completion percentage, at 65.5 percent – better than Patrick Mahomes, Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Baker Mayfield – but, still, 19th. ESPN’s total QBR currently listed Heinicke 21st out of the 32 current starters.

And Pro Football Focus ranks Heinicke 29th overall out of 38 quarterbacks who have been regular starters or become starters due to injuries.

Could you win with a QB with that kind of statistical pedigree? Yes. But the margin of error would be, and will be, so much smaller than if you have a top-10 level guy in place. And Washington’s roster is far from being complete. There are still question marks at linebacker and wide receiver, and the injury churn along both lines of scrimmage requires constant updating and enhancing of those units.

It will be up to Rivera and the front office to make a call on Heinicke after the season. Heinicke is already signed for 2022, but that’s no saving grace. Next year will be year three for Rivera – basically, the Show Me Season. You have all your people in place in the front office, and the team is mostly comprised of your draft picks and free-agent signings. Having the right guy behind center thus becomes an imperative, no longer a trifle to be kicked down the road.

“Well, what we’ll look for obviously, other than the skill set, is, really, the energy level he’ll play with, his decision making. Can he process?” Rivera said last week when asked about how he will go about evaluating Heinicke as a long-term prospect.

And what is the landscape in which Washington will be competing for a difference-making quarterback? Here’s a cheat sheet that will likely, barring key injuries, remain accurate at the end of the season.

Good-to-go

Bengals, Bills, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Jaguars, Patriots, Rams, Ravens, Titans

There’s a massive difference between 22-year veteran Tom Brady and rookies Lawrence and Jones, and those with various levels of experience in between. What connects these teams is there’s no debating who sits atop the QB depth chart next season – and, since only fools consider Brady’s end near, then some. Other than perpetually rebuilding Jacksonville, all of these teams are firmly in the playoff mix. Thanks to the talents under center, that’s not a coincidence.

Plan in place, at least for now

49ers, Bears, Jets, Packers, Seahawks, Vikings

The first three teams drafted a passer in the first round in April, but hope centers on potential rather than anything proved to date.

Green Bay’s variance hinges on the organization’s relationship with the mercurial Rodgers. Parameters for divorce exist, but it’s hard seeing another suitor offering the 3-time MVP a better shot at another Super Bowl ring. That’s no longer the case with Wilson and Seattle. Even if ownership decides the apparently stale situation warrants a change, that’s probably bad news for coach Pete Carroll’s tenure unless Ciara’s man says Gimme Dat exit.

Fair or not, Kirk Cousins often leaves critics wanting more. His $45.5 million 2022 dead cap mark leaves him in Minnesota next season. Trey Lance’s presence may push Jimmy Garappolo out in San Francisco unless the 49ers determine the best path for the raw rookie is sitting him for most of his sophom*ore campaign as well.

Fence-sitting teams

Browns, Colts, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, Giants, Lions, Raiders

Paths exist where these teams aggressively target someone new. There’s also a world where staying pat isn’t just a fall-back option, but the preferred option.

Extension talks loom for Cleveland’s Mayfield and Las Vegas’ Derek Carr. Carson Wentz has been wildly up and down in Indy. Matt Ryan’s contract is locked and loaded – and very expensive for an Atlanta team not poised for immediate success.

Tua Tagovailoa might have only the remaining regular-season games to show Miami’s bosses he’s worthy of building around. Same with Daniel Jones, though New York already chose him over uninspiring offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, who was fired last week. The Giants also have two 2022 first-round picks, one fewer than the Eagles. That war chest gives Philadelphia options should it determine Jalen Hurts’ legs cannot overcome any pocket-passing concerns.

The jury appears convinced with its thoughts on the struggling Goff in Detroit. Problem: The best options for the winless Lions, positioned for the first overall selection in April’s draft, are at other positions.

Desperate times, desperate teams

Broncos, Panthers, Saints, Steelers, Texans, Washington

Denver and Carolina, both in the playoff hunt this season, have been extra aggressive in the search for a stable presence in recent years. That might not change even if Bridgewater (Broncos) and Cam Newton (Panthers) direct their respective teams into the postseason.

New Orleans lost its lottery ticket, Jameis Winston, to a season-ending knee injury, while it’s time for Pittsburgh to clock out Roethlisberger. Houston faces the same dilemma as Detroit.

Washington, from a long-term perspective, belongs in this bottom tier. That’s why Rivera keeps receiving questions about the team’s quarterback plans and why he’s part of weekly conversations in the building regarding the same topic.

“There’s a lot of quarterbacks that don’t necessarily have the full package,” Rivera said last week. “And we’re going to try and find the guys that we think will fit what we do, will be good decision makers, do a great job of processing, have the ability to get that across to their teammates. One of the things that I find impressive is, and it’s kind of neat I get that opportunity, is during practice, and during the game, I watch for it – during practice, I’ll lean in and watch as Taylor calls the huddle. And I’ve seen it in some of the really good ones that I’ve been fortunate enough to be around. I watched Philip Rivers do it (when Rivera was inside linebackers coach and defensive coordinator in San Diego), how he would talk, and he would watch and look at everybody, and make sure, as he’s making the call, that guys need to know specifically what he’s saying that he’s looking and he’s communicating to. And he may say something specific, too, to that player. I’ve seen Taylor do that, and I thought that was impressive.

“Alex Smith did that last year. And every now and then, you’d see him put his hand up, too, when he’d do it. And that shows command, as far as I’m concerned. I think it shows, hey, I’ve got a feel for it, I’ve got to make sure this guy knows, hey, you run that route, make sure you get a good release. And, hey, guys up front, you’ve got to make sure that I can step up and deliver this ball. That’s what you want, is a guy that’s going to be able to communicate those things to his guys as well.”

Rivera says they’ll “evaluate everything.” But, if Washington decides it can do better, how does it go about getting that quarterback in house?

While projections slot 3-5 quarterbacks into the 2022 first round, there’s no apparent star talent in the class. Even if Washington selects Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, Mississippi’s Matt Corral or another passer project, chances are high that kid won’t be viewed as Year 1 viable by the head coach.

“What’s unfair to a lot of these young guys, unless the guy is taken in the first three, four or five picks, to expect him to come in and be the starter right away is so unfair,” Rivera told The Athletic earlier this season.

That means either avoiding the kiddie pool altogether by securing a proven starter – Rivera took a swing at Matthew Stafford before landing on Ryan Fitzpatrick in free agency – or having a stop-gap candidate to open the season at a minimum.

All we know for sure is that Washington will be part of a crowded marketplace next offseason.

When Smith was healthy enough to get through most of the second half of the season in 2020, Washington went on a run that culminated in an unlikely NFC East title. The defense suddenly looked formidable; the running game credible. All because Smith made the right decisions and reads, not only making good throws, but also good decisions. Throwing the ball away on second-and-6 when there’s no one open matters, too.

Similarly, Heinicke’s raised his game since looking skittish and unproductive before the bye, and the WFT has gotten back in the playoff race. (It is here that one notes that, after Dallas’ Thanksgiving Day loss at home to the Raiders, Washington now controls its own postseason destiny, and could conceivably catch and pass the Cowboys and win the division outright by running the five-game NFC East table at the end of the schedule. After which one ducks at the plates of leftovers being thrown at one’s head for stating such a thing out loud.)

Heinicke was a combined 42 of 54 – a 77.8 percent completion percentage – against the Bucs and Panthers, for 462 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions, and a quarterback rating of 127.01. The last two times out, he hasn’t been high or nearly as late getting the ball to receivers, and he’s been very good in the red zone. The touchdown pass to Cam Sims in Carolina last week was a legit great throw – around a leaping linebacker who looked like he was spying Heinicke, but ahead of another closing linebacker coming across Sims’ face. Heinicke’s scrambled effectively when needed and thrown successfully into tight windows. He’s a competitor and he plays with fire and his teammates love him.

But Heinicke’s 28, not 21. This time last year, he was taking grad classes at Old Dominion. None of this means he couldn’t be the ultimate late bloomer, a guy who has worked hard at improving both his craft and his body. Before this season, Heinicke had trouble staying healthy. Adding 15 pounds of muscle in the offseason has helped keep him on the field for 10 weeks so far this year. But it’s still far from a given that he’s the long-term solution. The comparisons of other smaller, undrafted QBs often made to him aren’t perfect.

It’s true that Jeff Garcia didn’t debut in the NFL until he was 29, after which he threw for 25,000 yards and 161 touchdowns, while running for 26 more scores and making four Pro Bowls. But Garcia had been a star in the Canadian Football League before going to the 49ers in 1999. He threw for 445 yards in his first start for the Calgary Stampeders in 1995, and beat out Doug Flutie for the starting job in the first of Garcia’s two Grey Cup appearances for Calgary. The following season, Garcia was named the Grey Cup MVP after leading Calgary to a last-second victory with an 80-yard scoring drive.

Similarly, Kurt Warner had lit up the Arena League, with two all-league seasons and back-to-back ArenaBowl appearances, before going to St. Louis to ultimately conduct the Greatest Show on Turf with the Rams and start his Hall of Fame career in the NFL. There was tape of him – at a lower level, to be sure, but still – carving up defenses.

By contrast, you’ve basically seen Heinicke’s entire body of professional QB work, save his Week 16 appearance in Carolina in 2018, in the last 12 months in Washington. There’s no debating that there’s something there. But, what is it?

(Photo of Rivera and Heinicke: Jonathan Newton / The Washington Post via Getty Images)