What happens if China stops buying U.S. debt?
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying
What happens if all countries stop buying US treasuries? If all countries stop buying US treasuries, it would have a significant impact on the US economy. The US government would have to find other buyers for its debt, which could lead to higher interest rates and lower long-term growth.
China has offloaded USD 22.7 billion in US treasury bills recently over concerns over security and a further delay to expected interest rate cuts by the American Federal Reserve, amidst its intensified strategic rivalry with Washington.
If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.
As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).
| Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
|---|---|
| Macao SAR | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
| Kuwait | 3.08% |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
It's going to put it into bonds of other countries. It will have to buy other currencies in order to invest in those countries' bonds. So US interest rates will no doubt rise as the supply of US Treasury bonds suddenly increases and the dollar will fall as China moves a lot of money out of dollars.
Implications for the Economy: The bond market serves as a barometer for the broader economy. A sustained bond market collapse can signal concerns about economic stability, potentially leading to shifts in government policies and impacting job markets, inflation rates, and interest rates on various financial products.
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
China's debt overhang far exceeds the burdens facing the United States. As recently as 2020, total debt in the United States relative to GDP exceeded China's. But as of mid-2022, China's relative debt burden stood 40 percent higher than America's.
What country owes the US the most money?
With $1.1 trillion in Treasury holdings, Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Japan surpassed China as the top holder in 2019 as China shed over $250 billion, or 30% of its holdings in four years.
China owns 384,000 acres of American agricultural land. That's a 30% increase just since 2019. And on top of that, they own land near an air force base in North Dakota.
One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues. To pay that deficit, the government borrows money.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
- Japan. Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP. ...
- United States. ...
- China. ...
- Russia.
| Economy by Gross Debt | % of GDP (2023) |
|---|---|
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 168% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 144% |
| 🇺🇸 United States* | 123% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 110% |
Federal Borrowing
The federal government borrows money from the public by issuing securities—bills, notes, and bonds—through the Treasury. Treasury securities are attractive to investors because they are: Backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.
[2] A report by the credit rating agency S&P Global in 2022 estimated that 79 per cent of corporate debt in China was owed by SOEs (the IMF does not break down the proportion of debt owed by SOEs).
Public debt in Russia averaged 15.4% of GDP in the decade to 2022, below the average of 32.5% of GDP for Eastern Europe. Public debt in Russia was 18.9% of GDP in 2022.
China's debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to a new record high in 2023 despite the slow pace of borrowing, reflecting the economy's weakening growth, a new report from a state-backed think tank shows.
Which country borrows the most money from world Bank?
India takes the top spot. Its $39.7bn debt towards the WB recorded at the end of 2021 is double that of the next biggest debtor, Indonesia, with $19.6bn. Pakistan and Bangladesh follow with $18.3bn and $17.8bn, respectively, according to WB figures.
Russia divested from all US bond instruments, the only debts the Federal government has, and still owes the US and other investors nearly 300 billion US Dollars.
After adjusting for Belgium, China is estimated to have sold only about $40 billion in Treasuries over the last 18 months (it bought around $40 billion in 2022, and reduced its holdings by around $80 billion in the first 6 months of 2023 – with most of reduction coming in January 2023).
Treasury bonds are considered risk-free assets, meaning there is no risk that the investor will lose their principal. In other words, investors that hold the bond until maturity are guaranteed their principal or initial investment.
If the issuer defaults, the bonds could become worthless. Market value can decline, sometimes significantly if interest rates rise above the coupon rate of the bond. If the issuer develops cash flow problems, interest payments may be suspended.
