Why is U.S. debt so high?
It began rising at a fast rate in the 1980's and was accelerated through events like the Iraq Wars and the 2008 Great Recession. Most recently, the debt made another big jump thanks to the pandemic with the federal government spending significantly more than it took in to keep the country running.
Nearly every year, the government spends more than it collects in taxes and other revenue, resulting in a deficit. (The debt ceiling, set by Congress, caps how much the U.S. can borrow to pay for its remaining bills.) The national debt, now at a historic high, is the buildup of its deficits over time.
History of U.S. Debt
GDP shrinks during a recession while government tax receipts decline and safety net spending rises. The combination of higher budget deficits with lower GDP inflates the debt-to-GDP ratio.
| Country/territory | US foreign-owned debt (January 2023) |
|---|---|
| Japan | $1,104,400,000,000 |
| China | $859,400,000,000 |
| United Kingdom | $668,300,000,000 |
| Belgium | $331,100,000,000 |
Under current policy, the United States has about 20 years for corrective action after which no amount of future tax increases or spending cuts could avoid the government defaulting on its debt whether explicitly or implicitly (i.e., debt monetization producing significant inflation).
Tax hikes alone are rarely enough to stimulate the economy and pay down debt. Governments often issue debt in the form of bonds to raise money. Spending cuts and tax hikes combined have helped lower the deficit. Bailouts and debt defaults have disadvantages but can help a government solve a debt problem.
Decreased savings and income
The private sector will stop seeking investments that can generate growth due to the incentive to save. This includes the lower amount of capital available once individuals stop investing in securities offered by businesses due to treasury securities being more attractive.
One of the main culprits is consistently overspending. When the federal government spends more than its budget, it creates a deficit. In the fiscal year of 2023, it spent about $381 billion more than it collected in revenues.
| Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
|---|---|
| Macao SAR | 0% |
| Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
| Kuwait | 3.08% |
| Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
“The answer, in one word, is inflation,” says Alan Cole, senior economic policy analyst at The Conference Board, a business-focused think tank. “[That's] the binding constraint on governments, in the end, that keeps them from issuing gobs of currency and buying whatever they want with it.”
Does the US owe its citizens money?
The $34 trillion gross federal debt includes debt held by the public as well as debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself.
China owes the United States $1.3 trillion, which is the most debt out of all the countries that are its debtors. Japan was the primary debt holder until 2008, but now comes in second place, with $1.2 trillion. Other countries with outstanding U.S. debt include Russia, India and South Korea.
Intragovernmental debt accounts for 26 percent or $5.9 trillion. The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments.
- Japan. Japan has the highest percentage of national debt in the world at 259.43% of its annual GDP. ...
- United States. ...
- China. ...
- Russia.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt.
People buy government because they assume a government bond is a safe investment. However, this assumes that inflation will remain low. If governments print money to pay off the national debt, inflation could rise. This increase in inflation would reduce the value of bonds.
The financial position of the United States includes assets of at least $269 trillion (1576% of GDP) and debts of $145.8 trillion (852% of GDP) to produce a net worth of at least $123.8 trillion (723% of GDP).
Nearly half of mandatory spending in 2022 was for Social Security and other income support programs such as the Child Tax Credit, food and nutrition assistance, and federal employee benefits (figure 3). Most of the remainder paid for the two major government health programs, Medicare and Medicaid.
Around 70% of Japanese government bonds are purchased by the Bank of Japan, and much of the remainder is purchased by Japanese banks and trust funds, which largely insulates the prices and yields of such bonds from the effects of the global bond market and reduces their sensitivity to credit rating changes.
By January of 1835, for the first and only time, all of the government's interest-bearing debt was paid off. Congress distributed the surplus to the states (many of which were heavily in debt). The Jackson administration ended with the country almost completely out of debt!
Is America's debt a problem?
If unaddressed, it will grow more than twice as fast as the economy and reach 200 percent of GDP by 2050. Why Is This a Problem? The growing debt could create additional challenges for federal fiscal management, which could in turn cause challenges for American households and individuals, too.
The least indebted state is Oklahoma, according to the report, followed by Iowa and a tie for third with New Hampshire and Nebraska. The fifth best state in the category is Ohio. The next five best states, from best to worst, are Wyoming, Indiana, and Wisconsin, with Vermont and South Dakota tied in their ranking.
Among other countries, Japan and China have continued to be the top owners of US debt during the last two decades. Since the dollar is a strong currency that is accepted globally, holding a substantial amount of US debt can be beneficial.
The average debt an American owes is $104,215 across mortgage loans, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, credit card debt, student loan debt, and other debts like personal loans. Data from Experian breaks down the average debt a consumer holds based on type, age, credit score, and state.
Public debt in Russia averaged 15.4% of GDP in the decade to 2022, below the average of 32.5% of GDP for Eastern Europe. Public debt in Russia was 18.9% of GDP in 2022.
