Why is China in a debt crisis?
Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations. With China's trend growth rate notably lower now than it was, it leaves a burden over the long haul.
Many pundits blame governments whenever economies crash, but the real cause of China's slump is the long period of fast growth that piled up vulnerable and unsustainable debts. The higher they fly, the harder they fall.
Meanwhile, Chinese stock markets have swooned since late 2023, deepening losses that amount to trillions of dollars over the past several years. A real estate downturn, job losses and other trials of the COVID-19 pandemic have left consumers cautious about spending.
China's Problems Will Hit Other Markets
2024 is shaping up to be another challenging year for China as the economy stutters under the burden of mounting debt and deepening deflation.
If China called in all of its U.S. holdings, the U.S. dollar would depreciate, whereas the yuan would appreciate, making Chinese goods more expensive.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
China's economy is at a turning point. An old economic model underpinned by heavy investment in infrastructure and real estate is crumbling. Growth is slowing and prices are falling, raising the specter of a Japan-style slide into stagnation.
The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No. 2. Even more striking, U.S. GDP was over five times that of the next two largest economies, Japan and Germany.
Measured at market exchange rates, China's GDP was $18.3 trillion in 2022, 73 percent of the GDP of the United States and 10 times more than the 7 percent of US GDP it registered in 1990.
Taipei, Taiwan – After starting 2023 with a bang, China's economy had a bumpy recovery over the past year. The Chinese economy's precarious footing looks set to continue into 2024, as deep-seated structural issues and Chinese President Xi Jinping's consolidation of political control threaten to dampen growth.
Can China revive its economy?
The real key to reviving China's economic momentum is to increase productivity in an increasingly service-dominated economy. To do so, the government must first strengthen social safety nets to raise effective household incomes and increase demand for services.
China Jobless Rate Falls to 5.2%
China's surveyed unemployment rate edged down to 5.2% in March 2024, down from 5.3% in the previous month, in line with market expectations.
While the revised figures mean that Japan escaped recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – it continues to be the world's fourth-largest economy after losing the number three spot to Germany.
If China (or any other nation that has a trade surplus with the U.S.) stops buying U.S. Treasuries or even starts dumping its U.S. forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit—something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.
In total, other territories hold about $7.4 trillion in U.S. debt. Japan owns the most at $1.1 trillion, followed by China, with $859 billion, and the United Kingdom at $668 billion. In isolation, this $7.4 trillion amount is a lot, said Scott Morris, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development.
The national debt of the United States is the total national debt owed by the federal government of the United States to Treasury security holders. The national debt at any point in time is the face value of the then-outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal agencies.
Characteristic | National debt in relation to GDP |
---|---|
Macao SAR | 0% |
Brunei Darussalam | 2.06% |
Kuwait | 3.08% |
Hong Kong SAR | 4.27% |
As a result, totals from January 2023 are lower than reported. As of January 2023, the five countries owning the most US debt are Japan ($1.1 trillion), China ($859 billion), the United Kingdom ($668 billion), Belgium ($331 billion), and Luxembourg ($318 billion).
Russia divested from all US bond instruments, the only debts the Federal government has, and still owes the US and other investors nearly 300 billion US Dollars. The national debt in Russia was forecast to increase between 2023 and 2028 by in total 16.1 billion U.S.
Previous estimates have ranged from 65 million to 80 million vacant housing units in China. He's remarks suggest even these numbers are an underestimate. Xi Jinping's regime looks paralysed in the face of this crisis.
Is China in a banking crisis?
There's been a sharp rise in consumer credit defaults in the country, particularly in the real estate sector. The number of individuals blacklisted for missed payments across various financial obligations, including mortgages and business loans, reached a record high of 8.5m last year, up from 5.7m in early 2020.
Unfounded assumptions about a future rebound in national fertility rates weaken Chinese policymakers' ability to properly address the challenges posed by rapid demographic change. China's population fell by two million in 2023, marking the second straight year of decline.
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